California wildfires · home prices, 3 years post-fire
Burned areas appreciated meaningfully slower than the areas right next to them.
Average growth in home sale price per square foot over the three years following each of the five largest California wildfires of 2010–2020 (Valley, Tubbs, Thomas, Woolsey, Camp). Compared with an adjacent buffer zone drawn outward by the same distance as the perimeter's center-to-edge.
21%
average home-price growth in burned California areas, 3 years post-fire.
vs 33% in adjacent (unburned) areas.
SALES ↓43% in year 1 (still 29% below baseline at year 3) · NEW CONSTRUCTION ↑595% as builders rebuilt.
≈$628 BILLION in California housing stock sits in high-fire-risk areas.
Source: Katz & Sandoval-Olascoaga (2021), Redfin News · five largest California wildfires of 2010–2020 by residential properties within the burn perimeter: Valley (2015), Tubbs (2017), Thomas (2017), Woolsey (2018), Camp (2018) · fire perimeters from CAL FIRE · home sales, prices, all-cash purchases, new construction, and property-tax revenue from MLS and county records · within-perimeter properties compared with an adjacent buffer drawn outward by the same distance as the perimeter's center-to-edge.
The analysis covers the five largest California wildfires by residential properties within the perimeter between 2010 and 2020: Valley (2015), Tubbs (2017), Thomas (2017), Woolsey (2018), and Camp (2018). For each, properties inside the burn perimeter are compared against an adjacent buffer zone, drawn outward by the same distance as the perimeter's center-to-edge. The Camp Fire of 2018 had the most severe housing-market impact: home sales fell 69% and property-tax revenue fell 58% in the years that followed. Across all five fire zones, tax revenue fell 6% on average while rising 12% in surrounding areas, widening the fiscal gap between burned and adjacent communities. About $628 billion of California's housing stock sits in high-fire-risk areas.