Utah outranked every other Western state on share of homes at high fire risk.
Share of homes in high, very high, or extreme fire-risk categories per ClimateCheck's MC2 vegetation-model classification. Eight contiguous Western U.S. states with sufficient data (Arizona, California, Colorado, Idaho, Nevada, Oregon, Utah, Washington). Montana, New Mexico, and Wyoming were excluded for data coverage.
39.4%
of Utah homes face high fire risk, the largest share of any Western U.S. state.
411,052 properties · $219 billion in value.
COLORADO 19% · IDAHO 14.4% · OREGON 8.5% · NEVADA 7.4% · CALIFORNIA 6.7%
CALIFORNIA $628B in property value at high fire risk, the largest dollar exposure in the West.
Source: Katz, Sandoval-Olascoaga & Bokhari (2021), Redfin News · ClimateCheck fire-risk classifications (MC2 dynamic global vegetation model) as of March 31, 2021 · Redfin Estimates for property values as of June 25, 2021 · counties with at least 150 properties at high fire risk included in county-level tables · "high fire risk" defined as the union of high, very high, and extreme ClimateCheck categories.
The analysis uses ClimateCheck's MC2-based fire-risk model (annual share of surrounding area projected to burn) merged with Redfin property estimates across eight Western states. Utah's concentration reflects its mountainous topography overlapping with rapid population growth: Salt Lake City metro searches from outside the metro rose to 35.7% in early 2021, and the state grew 18.4% in population over 2010–2020. Three Utah counties had over 94% of homes at high fire risk: Rich (96.9%), Summit (95.1%), and Wasatch (94.6%). The October 2021 follow-up on this site analyzed the price and sales impacts of California's five largest wildfires.