Drought vs migration · Q2 2022
Severe-drought metros, by the direction of net Redfin migration.
Among the 34 U.S. metros where more than half of homes faced intense drought in mid-August 2022 (severe, extreme, or exceptional categories on the U.S. Drought Monitor), 25 had more Redfin users moving in than out in Q2 2022. The reverse pattern (more leaving than arriving) held in 9 metros.
74%
of severe-drought metros had net inflows of Redfin users in Q2 2022.
25 of 34 severe-drought U.S. metros.
$17 TRILLION in U.S. homes (≈25M properties) sat in intense drought in August 2022.
↑ 42% from $12 trillion (14M properties) the previous August.
Source: Katz & Sandoval-Olascoaga (2022), Redfin News · Redfin migration analytics on ~2 million Redfin.com users, Q2 2022 · drought classification from the U.S. Drought Monitor (severe + extreme + exceptional categories, mid-August 2022) · home values from Redfin Estimate as of August 22, 2022 · sample restricted to users who viewed at least 10 homes in a given metro with that metro comprising at least 80% of their searches.
The analysis uses migration patterns from about 2 million Redfin.com users searching across more than 100 metros in Q2 2022. Intense drought is defined as the severe, extreme, or exceptional categories from the U.S. Drought Monitor. The pattern held from the prior year: in Q2 2021, 16 of 23 severe-drought metros (70%) also had more inflows than outflows, even as the dollar value of drought-affected homes grew from $12 trillion to $17 trillion over those 12 months. For most of these movers, affordability took precedence over climate risk.
Drought may also not be scaring people off to the same extent as fires or flooding, which can physically decimate homes. Still, homeowners and buyers should be aware that drought danger could ultimately dent their home's value if a lack of water forces residents to leave en masse. Sandoval-Olascoaga, in the Redfin piece.Read the full piece at redfin.com → Includes the full metro-level table and additional context from a Las Vegas Redfin agent.