Climate risk & migration · 2016–2020 · 5 risk categories
All five high-climate-risk county groups gained residents on net, even as low-risk counties declined.
Average cumulative net migration as a share of population, 2016–2020, in the 50 U.S. counties with the highest share of high-risk homes for each climate-risk category. ClimateCheck risk data merged with Census migration estimates; U.S. counties with at least 500 homes.
+4.7%
average population growth from net migration in the 50 heat-risk counties.
And positive across all 5 risk categories.
HEAT +4.7% · DROUGHT +3.5% · FIRE +3% · FLOOD +1.9% · STORM +0.4%
LOW-RISK COUNTERFACTUAL: heat, drought, fire, flood each declined ~1% on average over the same window.
Source: Katz & Sandoval-Olascoaga (2021), Redfin News · ClimateCheck risk data (high, very high, or extreme categories) as of March 31, 2021 · U.S. Census Bureau Vintage 2020 net-migration estimates for the 5-year window 2016–2020 · property counts from Redfin/county records as of August 2, 2021 · U.S. counties with at least 500 homes · "net migration" = cumulative inflows minus outflows over the 5-year window.
The analysis uses ClimateCheck risk data merged with U.S. Census migration estimates and Redfin property data across U.S. counties with at least 500 homes. For each of five climate-risk categories (heat, drought, fire, flood, storm), Redfin compared the 50 counties with the highest share of high-risk homes against the 50 with the lowest. The pattern in the high-risk counties pointed to affordability and access to nature as the dominant pull: 40 of the top 50 heat-risk counties had home prices below the 2020 U.S. median ($315,000), 17 of those 50 were in Florida, and 34 of the top 50 drought-risk counties were in the West. This 5-category survey is the foundation for the 2022 drought-specific follow-up also in this gallery.
People have been gravitating to places with severe climate risk because many of these areas are relatively affordable, have lower property taxes, more housing options or access to nature. For a lot of people, these benefits seem to outweigh the dangers of climate change. But as natural disasters become more frequent, homeowners in these areas may end up losing property value or face considerable difficulty getting their properties insured against environmental disasters. Sandoval-Olascoaga, in the Redfin piece.Read the full piece at redfin.com → Includes the per-category county leaderboards (Williamson, Pasco, Custer, Horry, Lee, etc.) and Redfin agent context from the Austin and Salt Lake City markets.