Published at Redfin News · August 2022

16.1% of U.S. home-purchase agreements fell through in July 2022, the highest rate since the pandemic onset.

Originally published · Redfin News

In July 2022, 16.1% of U.S. home-purchase agreements fell through, about 63,000 cancellations across 93 metropolitan areas. That's the highest rate since the pandemic onset, up from 15% in June and 12.5% a year earlier. 6 of the top 10 cancellation metros were in Florida, led by Jacksonville at 29.3%.

Home-purchase cancellations · July 2022

Buyers regained leverage as mortgage rates crossed 5% and inventory grew.

Share of home-purchase agreements that fell through in a given month, U.S. average across 93 metropolitan areas with at least 1,000 pending sales in July. Excludes the pandemic-onset months of March and April 2020, when the housing market briefly paused.

16.1%

of U.S. home-purchase agreements fell through in July 2022.

≈63,000 cancellations across 93 metros.

UP FROM 15% (JUNE) and 12.5% a year earlier. Highest rate since pandemic-onset March–April 2020.

JACKSONVILLE 29.3% led the metros · 6 of the top 10 cancellation metros were in Florida.

Source: Katz & Sandoval-Olascoaga (2022), Redfin News · Redfin analysis of MLS data on home-purchase agreements that fell out of contract during a given month · sample: 93 U.S. metropolitan areas with at least 1,000 pending home sales in July 2022 · data is subject to revision as later-closing transactions update.

The analysis uses Redfin's MLS coverage of 93 U.S. metros that recorded at least 1,000 pending home sales in July. The context: 30-year mortgage rates had crossed 5% by mid-2022, lifting the monthly payment on the typical home by nearly 40% year-over-year. Annual home-price growth had slowed from 17% to 8%. As inventory grew and competition dropped (Orlando agents reported 37.4% of offers facing bidding wars in July, down from 81.4% a year earlier), buyers regained negotiating leverage and started exercising it. Florida metros, where 2020–21 price increases left buyers most stretched, posted the steepest cancellation rates.

Read the full piece at redfin.com Includes the full metro-level cancellation table, additional Redfin agent context from Jacksonville, and the Deputy Chief Economist's outlook.