Published at Redfin News · July 2021

South Carolina could see a 10.2% increase in rental vacancies if the federal eviction moratorium ended.

Originally published · Redfin News

When the federal eviction moratorium ended in summer 2021, 7.3% of South Carolina renter households reported being "very likely" to face eviction, the highest share in the country (vs 1.2% nationally). If even one-fifth of those 43,021 households vacated, South Carolina's rental-vacancy count would rise by an estimated 10.2%. The state had distributed less than $100,000 of its $272 million in federal rental-assistance funding by the end of June.

Eviction moratorium · end-of-2021 projections

South Carolina led the country in renter-eviction risk when the federal moratorium ended.

Projected increase in rental vacancies in South Carolina if one-fifth of the 43,021 renter households self-reporting "very likely" eviction risk on the Census House Pulse Survey vacated. Nationally, 548,710 renter households were "very likely" facing eviction at the same point.

10.2%

projected rise in South Carolina rental vacancies if 1-in-5 at-risk renters vacated.

43,021 SC households at risk · highest projection nationally.

7.3% OF SC RENTERS reported "very likely" eviction, 6× the 1.2% national rate.

< $100K OF $272M in federal rental-assistance funding distributed by South Carolina by end of June 2021.

Source: Fairweather & Sandoval-Olascoaga (2021), Redfin News · U.S. Census House Pulse Survey, week 33 (July 2021) for renter self-reported eviction likelihood · American Community Survey 2019 for renter-occupied unit counts · Q1 2021 Census residential-vacancies survey for vacant housing-unit growth rates · projection assumes one-fifth of "very likely" households vacate · "net new vacancies" computed as a share of total state vacant rental stock.

The analysis uses the U.S. Census House Pulse Survey (week 33, July 2021) for renter-household self-reports on imminent eviction risk, combined with American Community Survey 2019 renter-occupied unit counts and the Q1 2021 Census residential-vacancies survey. South Carolina's risk concentration reflects both the speed of the state's eviction process (evictions can begin five days after a missed payment) and the slowness of rental-assistance disbursement. By contrast, Texas had moved $500 million in rental assistance to more than 80,000 households over the same period. Across all states, an estimated 548,710 U.S. renter households were "very likely" facing eviction, a projected 2.8% national rental-vacancy increase if one-fifth vacated.

Read the full piece at redfin.com Includes state-by-state projections, additional context from Pennsylvania and Idaho, and quotes from rental-assistance practitioners on rollout speed.