Eviction moratorium · end-of-2021 projections
South Carolina led the country in renter-eviction risk when the federal moratorium ended.
Projected increase in rental vacancies in South Carolina if one-fifth of the 43,021 renter households self-reporting "very likely" eviction risk on the Census House Pulse Survey vacated. Nationally, 548,710 renter households were "very likely" facing eviction at the same point.
10.2%
projected rise in South Carolina rental vacancies if 1-in-5 at-risk renters vacated.
43,021 SC households at risk · highest projection nationally.
7.3% OF SC RENTERS reported "very likely" eviction, 6× the 1.2% national rate.
< $100K OF $272M in federal rental-assistance funding distributed by South Carolina by end of June 2021.
Source: Fairweather & Sandoval-Olascoaga (2021), Redfin News · U.S. Census House Pulse Survey, week 33 (July 2021) for renter self-reported eviction likelihood · American Community Survey 2019 for renter-occupied unit counts · Q1 2021 Census residential-vacancies survey for vacant housing-unit growth rates · projection assumes one-fifth of "very likely" households vacate · "net new vacancies" computed as a share of total state vacant rental stock.
The analysis uses the U.S. Census House Pulse Survey (week 33, July 2021) for renter-household self-reports on imminent eviction risk, combined with American Community Survey 2019 renter-occupied unit counts and the Q1 2021 Census residential-vacancies survey. South Carolina's risk concentration reflects both the speed of the state's eviction process (evictions can begin five days after a missed payment) and the slowness of rental-assistance disbursement. By contrast, Texas had moved $500 million in rental assistance to more than 80,000 households over the same period. Across all states, an estimated 548,710 U.S. renter households were "very likely" facing eviction, a projected 2.8% national rental-vacancy increase if one-fifth vacated.